A Web without Google?
If you are still reading…here is the full version.
How is the web evolving? How can we predict what is going to happen next? Unfortunately I don’t have a crystal ball. But what if instead we look at the Web as a system? The great thing about systems is their self-similarity – systems as far apart as sun spots and the Internet may share common attributes purely from the fact that they both function as systems.
Actually, sun spots and the Web both function as special kinds of systems - those that display the ability to self-organise – they are able to re-order the configuration of their parts in order to increase their efficiency.
Technically, systems of this kind are called ‘dissipative structures’. They are called this because they can re-organise themselves to dissipate energy faster – they becme more efficient. Its the drive for efficiency that creates their new structure.
In the case of sun spots, the spots are the new structure that forms when the heat of the sun is so intense that the molecules need to find more efficient ways of dissipating the heat to the surface. To do this they self-organise to create vortices of current which enables the super-heated molecules to reach the sun’s surface faster.
We can also see this self-organisation on the Web. The entire personalization push towards the ‘Semantic Web’ is about efficiency - making Web content more relevant to each individual person. When I only have to do one search to find the site I want, or perform one click to book my vacation, that is the Web becoming more efficient.
There is no question that Google’s algorithm has played a key role in making information more relevant and useful to people. As an organisation they have definitely fulfilled their purpose. Before Google it was much harder to find what you wanted. That’s why most users switched to Google – page ranking made a difference.
However, while Google provided the mechanism for the web to become more efficient, the energy behind the quest came from users. It is because you and I wanted a better way of finding things that fuelled the evolution of the Web to where it is today. This is important, because the energy driving efficiency on the Web is the user’s search for relevance. The rise of Google as a dominant node on the Web is due to the fact that until now it has provided the best efficiency solution for us. But will that last?
There are reasons to believe that the current status quo on the Web may not last. From a systems perspective, the evolution of dissipative structures is non-linear – there is no gradual emergence of a new structure for the system. Instead the system generally reaches a crisis point (called a ‘bifurcation point’) where it rapidly self-organises into a new structure that is more efficient than the last. All that’s need to perform the trick is an increased energy supply.
A quick browse of Digg.com or TechCrunch demonstrates that there is no let up in the insatiable desire of users to get more from the Web, and more easily, than ever before. So the energy for the continued evolution of the Web is clearly there. That means, from a systems perspective, there are good reasons to believe that the Web will:
- Re-organise itself to be more efficient
- It’s going to be non-linear
- It’s not going to look like how it looks today.
So what will it look like? This is not as hard to predict as it might seem. The rise of the Blog and the social network phenomenon demonstrate that people are doing it themselves. Whatever else is happening in the world to erode human rights and human freedoms, democracy is alive and kicking on the Web. (Living proof is the fact that I can publish this and you can read it when just a few years ago I would have to be a journalist contributing to a publication before I could share thoughts with you.)
Democracy – the collective decision of millions of people to take the initiative themselves to re-create the Web as they want it, is likely to be the both the driving force (energy) that fuels the evolution of the Web, and the process by which the Web re-invents itself.
I find this tremendously exciting. It speaks for the empowerment of the individual and the ability of the individual to exercise their right and freedom to create the Web they want.
It’s also bad news for Google, Yahoo! and every other current hub in the Network. For the current system is basically paternalistic. Until now Google has provided us with technology that has improved our search experience. But now people are saying they want to do it for themselves. Del.icio.us may be a book marking service, but it is also a search engine created by the collective marking up of million of pages.
From a systems perspective, there is no reason to believe the current status quo on the Web is its final iteration. All the signals are that people still want it better. With that drive, we could see another massive re-structuring take place very quickly.
For all who want to be part of the next iteration, the signs are that the way the Web is getting better is NOT by Google improving its algorithm. The Web is self-organising by millions of people literally creating the Web they want. This is democracy at its best. Long may it last. What do you think?
